Finance Ministry Projects Strong July-September GDP Growth

The Ministry of Finance expects India to achieve a GDP growth rate of 7.3 percent in the July-September quarter, which is much higher than the Reserve Bank of India forecast of 6.4 percent.

Growth Details

According to the Monthly Economic Review report for September released on Thursday, growth momentum has continued into the second quarter of the financial year 2027 at a more measured pace. The ministry used a forecasting method called nowcasting to arrive at this figure. The official GDP data for this quarter will be released by the statistics ministry on November 30. The Reserve Bank of India had previously made its lower forecast on August 5, before data showed the April-June quarter grew by 7.8 percent.

Global Risks

Despite the strong domestic numbers, the finance ministry warned that the country cannot rest on past growth because global conditions have turned unfavourable. The report pointed to rising oil prices, higher global bond yields, unsettled trade relations with the United States, and an artificial intelligence bubble that has not yet deflated. These factors create challenges for attracting capital flows and put short-term pressure on the rupee and other Indian assets.

Context

Nowcasting uses very recent short-term data to update predictions for the immediate future before official statistics are officially published. Central banks and finance ministries use these predictive tools to monitor fast-changing economic conditions between official data releases.