El Nino and Weather Swings Threaten Chili Crops and National Agriculture

Strong El Nino weather patterns, low monsoon rainfall, and sudden temperature spikes are dealing heavy blows to chili farming and overall agriculture.

Chili Crop Damage

In Konijerla mandal of Chinnamunagala village, chili plants are drying up and dying under intense heat after initial rain damage from a recent cyclone. Farmers report that expenses are mounting due to the repeated need to buy fertilizers, pesticides, and new saplings. SalebanJara farmer Lakavath Prakash noted that despite planting 35,000 plants across two acres using mulching, 8,000 plants died due to weather shifts, forcing him to replant three times in fifteen days. Chinnamunagala farmer Tata Srinivasa Rao added that rain from the cyclone broke and killed plants he had set a month and a half ago, leading to extra costs to replace them. Across the district, 18,626 farmers have planted chili across 29,433 acres, placing the district third in state cultivation behind Mahabubabad at 40,124 acres and Jogulamba Gadwal at 30,387 acres, while the threat of pests like thrips looms large.

National Monsoon Deficit

On a broader scale, a Citi Research report warns that India's southwest monsoon is ending with a 12 percent deficit below the long-period average, marking the highest deficit since the 2015 El Nino year. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 saw a deficit above 10 percent, while 15 saw over 20 percent. By late September, about half the country faced drought conditions, with roughly 10 percent classified as severely dry. Furthermore, water storage in national reservoirs stands at only 71 percent of live storage capacity compared to the ten-year average of 80 percent, the lowest level since 2016. The World Meteorological Organization estimates a near 100 percent chance that El Nino will persist until February 2027, threatening dry winters and potential heatwaves in March and April 2027 that could hit wheat, pulses, rice, and onion crops.

Context

El Nino is a climate pattern linked to the warming of surface ocean water in the eastern Pacific, which frequently triggers below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across parts of Asia. These recurring weather disruptions directly affect farm output, raising operational costs for cultivators and increasing the risk of higher food inflation for consumers nationwide.