Domestic Gold Prices Fall Over 20 Percent Ahead of Dhanteras as Experts Advise Staggered Buying

Domestic gold prices are hovering around ₹ 1,42,000 per 10 grams ahead of Dhanteras, marking a drop of more than 20% from their peak of nearly ₹ 1,80,000.

Market Pressures And Performance

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a stronger US dollar and elevated interest rates have weighed on gold prices. Despite this correction, gold has delivered a return of nearly 8% since last Dhanteras, outperforming the Nifty 50. Global gold ETF inflows reached approximately $39 billion through September 2026, following $89 billion in inflows in 2025 and $3.4 billion in 2024. Domestically, gold ETFs attracted estimated net investments of around ₹ 3,300 crore in October, pushing total assets under management from ₹ 1,58,400 crore in April 2026 to ₹ 1,91,000 crore in October. All 25 schemes on Dhan's gold ETF page recorded negative returns over the past month as of 4 November, with one-month losses ranging from 3.66% to 4.53%, led by Zerodha Gold ETF at 4.53%. Over the longer term, domestic gold prices climbed from approximately ₹ 47,600 per 10 grams in November 2021 to around ₹ 1,42,750 in late October 2026.

Expert Outlook

Pankaj Mathpal, Founder and CEO of Optima Money, advises investors not to make large lump-sum investments or chase prices, but rather to accumulate gold in small quantities through ETFs. Axis Direct expects the correction to offer long-term investors an opportunity to build exposure gradually, with potential returns of 20 to 25% by next Dhanteras and a target price range of ₹ 1,65,000 to ₹ 1,71,000.

Context

Dhanteras is widely regarded as an auspicious time for purchasing precious metals in India, often leading to increased seasonal retail demand. Financial experts frequently recommend treating gold as a long-term portfolio diversifier and a hedge against global economic and geopolitical uncertainty rather than a tool for short-term speculation.