Climate change threatens Kashmir musk deer habitats in western Himalaya, study warns

What Happened

Climate change could sharply reduce suitable living spaces for the endangered Kashmir musk deer in the western Himalaya by the end of the century, according to a new study. Researchers from Aligarh Muslim University used camera-trap data and climate models to study how the solitary, antlerless mountain species might fare under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Under baseline conditions, the model identified 5,003 square kilometres of suitable habitat, with 22.4 percent lying inside protected areas. While lower emissions scenarios kept habitat largely stable, a very high emissions scenario projected an 82.6 percent drop in suitable land by the years 2071 to 2081, shrinking the area to just 871 square kilometres.

Impact and Movement

The study also found that potential movement corridors connecting different deer populations could shrink by 50.9 percent under late-century very high emissions. Researchers warned that this loss of connectivity could isolate animal groups, making it harder for them to move, find mates, or recolonise areas after local losses. Furthermore, areas projected to remain suitable under future climates—known as climate refugia—mostly lie outside current official reserve boundaries, with only 21 percent of robust refugia located within protected areas. Overa-Aru and Thajwas-Baltal emerged as important refuges, while Kazinag stood out for its potential to connect habitats.

Context

The Kashmir musk deer is a rare, forest-associated species found across Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan, and is threatened by poaching for its musk gland, habitat loss, and human disturbance. Because male deer possess elongated upper canines instead of antlers, they rely on these teeth for territorial defence and fighting for mates during the breeding season. Scientists stress that protecting these animals helps preserve the wider Himalayan ecosystem, as they serve as selective herbivores, nutrient cyclers, and prey for predators like leopards.