Kenyans Fear Fresh Floods as Strong El Niño Approaches

Residents in Kenya are bracing for severe weather as forecasters warn that a powerful El Niño weather pattern could bring heavy rains and dangerous flooding. Agnes Shikoli, a resident of the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi, says she fears either drowning or having her metal home collapse on her. Her house sits just a few metres from the Ngong river, and the scars of floods from earlier this year remain visible. During the previous long rainy season, more than sixty people across the country lost their lives, including Shikoli's 58-year-old sister Beatrice Khalayi, who died of electrocution after her home flooded.

Cleanup Efforts

Workers wearing high-visibility vests are now clearing garbage and rubbish out of the Ngong riverbed as part of a government initiative called Climate Worx, operating under the office of President William Ruto. Similar cleanup work to unclog drainage systems and sewers is underway across Nairobi to prevent the blocked drains that worsened the earlier floods. Bramwell Simiyu, the Nairobi County disaster management chief, notes that the city's drainage system has been untouched for many years and that these efforts will save lives.

Infrastructure Challenges

Simiyu explains that Nairobi's drainage system was built 30 years ago for a population of about 2.5 million people, but the city now manages a daytime population of around 7 million and a night-time population of 5.5 million. Upgrading the sewerage and drainage system entirely requires an investment of up to $192 million, funds that neither the cash-strapped national nor city council can easily raise. The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme notes that settlements near rivers and weak enforcement of building regulations increase flood risks, while rising poverty forces many residents to live dangerously close to the water.

Emergency Plans

autoridades estimate that up to 100,000 people are at risk in low-income settlements under a worst-case scenario, while moderate projections place the figure at about 5,000 households or 20,000 people. Residents forced to leave their homes will be moved to 167 designated holding grounds where relief food and supplies will be distributed. Kenya's short rainy season typically lasts from October to December, with November usually marking the peak month of rainfall.

Context

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average ocean water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which frequently disrupts global weather patterns and triggers intense rainfall in parts of East Africa. Informal settlements like Kibera often face the greatest risks from extreme weather because unplanned rapid urban growth outpaces the development of basic public infrastructure like stormwater drains.