New Satellite Analysis Suggests Farm Fires in Punjab and Haryana Are Massively Undercounted

Satellite data and weather analysis reveal that farm fires in Punjab and Haryana reached their highest count of the season on Diwali, with empirical estimates indicating the true total may be close to 34,000 fires by November 9. ## Satellite Tracking Limits Isro's INSAT-3DS satellite detected very few fires until late October, after which counts rose steadily to peak at 447 on Diwali. However, NASA satellites routinely miss most modern stubble burning because farmers now set fields on fire later in the day. Data shows that 98 percent of fires detected by INSAT-3DS occurred between 4 pm and 6 pm, outside the normal afternoon window of standard NASA instruments like MODIS and VIIRS. Hiren Jethva, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, used a statistical model and satellite adjustments to calculate that actual figures are far higher than official counts. Meanwhile, an official from the Commission for Air Quality Management noted that authorities are deploying drones and low-cost sensors to improve ground-level data collection. ## Smoke Movement And Weather North-westerly winds carrying smoke toward Delhi slackened in the days following the festival, temporarily easing air quality pressure on the Capital. On Diwali afternoon, the mixing layer of air where pollution spreads was just 364 metres deep, much shallower than the usual November depth of 1,300 metres. Weather models forecast that the north-westerly winds will return on Wednesday and Thursday, blowing at speeds of around 23 to 27 kilometres per hour and pushing smoke from the fire belt back toward Delhi within roughly 10 hours. ## Context Stubble burning in northwestern India is a seasonal agricultural practice that routinely coincides with declining winter temperatures and stagnant wind patterns, worsening air quality in the national capital region. Because smoke dispersion depends heavily on wind speed and atmospheric mixing depth, shifting meteorological conditions can rapidly turn a moderate pollution day into an acute health emergency.