NZ’s tertiary stats hide low local qualifications and falling student enrolment

New Zealand’s 2026 OECD Education at a Glance figures show 44 % of adults aged 25‑64 hold a tertiary qualification, matching the OECD average of 43 %. Young graduates enjoy a low unemployment rate of 3 %, compared with 5 % across the OECD. However, these headline numbers rely heavily on migrants: more than one‑third of working‑age adults were born overseas, the second‑highest share among OECD members. Ministry of Education analysis of the 2024 report found 51 % of overseas‑born adults hold a tertiary qualification versus just 36 % of New Zealand‑born adults, one of the largest gaps in the OECD. On their own, New Zealand‑born adults would fall below the OECD average. Between 2015 and 2025 the share of 18‑24‑year‑olds in education dropped by about five percentage points to roughly 37 %, while the share working instead rose from about 43 % to 48 %. Unemployment climbed to 5.6 % in the June quarter, the highest since 2014, and hit 12 % among 20‑24‑year‑olds. Still, 88 % of tertiary‑educated adults are employed, versus 68 % of those without a secondary school completion, and they earn about 36 % more than secondary‑school graduates (OECD average 54 %). Government spending on tertiary education fell from 1.7 % of GDP in 2015 to 1.2 % in 2023, a drop of over a quarter, while school spending held steady. Fees from international students partly filled the gap, but the pandemic exposed the fragility of that approach. Policy analysts argue that cheaper fees alone won’t raise participation; the real barriers are school achievement, family circumstances and the lure of immediate work.

Context

The reliance on migrant qualifications masks a decline in local young people’s enrolment, raising concerns about future skill supply and the need for targeted investment in school outcomes and affordable support for domestic students.