OPEC trims India's 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 40,000 barrels per day

OPEC has cut its forecast for India's oil demand growth in 2026 to 40,000 barrels per day, down from the 60,000 b/d projected in September. The organisation expects total demand to reach about 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, a rise of roughly 40,000 b/d from the previous year. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand growth estimate for 2026 to 0.2 million b/d, half of the 0.4 million b/d it had earlier forecast, while raising the 2027 global growth outlook to 2.6 million b/d from 2.4 million b/d. The projection for India's demand growth in 2027 stays unchanged. "Gasoline is expected to be supported by heightened road mobility amid robust vehicle sales," OPEC said, adding that "diesel demand is anticipated to gain additional support from strong manufacturing and agricultural activity." Gasoline and diesel are set to drive the increase, with gasoline backed by higher road travel and strong vehicle sales, and diesel boosted by robust manufacturing and agricultural activity. Demand for residual fuel is expected to rise, whereas jet fuel growth will be modest. In contrast, the report sees demand for LPG and naphtha easing. ## Context India’s oil use is tightly linked to its transport sector and industrial output, so a surge in vehicle purchases and manufacturing activity typically pushes gasoline and diesel demand higher.