AI Firm Anthropic Eyes Huge Stock Market Debut Using SpaceX Playbook

AI firm Anthropic prepares to start trading next week after its expected IPO, with its early share price set more by who is forced to buy it than who wants to buy it. The Claude chatbot creator aims to raise up to $64.4 billion by selling 825 million shares priced between $70 and $78 each, valuing the firm at up to $1.4 trillion.

Market Playbook

Investors are looking at SpaceX's June stock market debut for clues. Elon Musk's SpaceX changed how giant stock listings work when major US index providers like Nasdaq changed rules to ensure passive money would buy shares within the first 15 days of listing. Like SpaceX, Anthropic will join at least six major indexes within 5 to 15 days, including the Nasdaq 100, the S&P Total Market Index, and FTSE's USA index. Intropic, a London-based index rebalance analytics firm, estimates passive demand from index-tracking funds will make up about 28% of the shares offered, or roughly $19 billion. Both SpaceX and South Korean firm SK Hynix saw big price jumps on their third day of trading when stock-option trading began. Anthropic is also letting employees who own roughly 15% of its equity sell some shares on the first day, unlike standard lock-ups.

Context

Stock indexes are baskets of major company shares that many passive investment funds track to match overall market performance. When a massive new company enters these popular indexes, index-tracking funds must buy its shares quickly, creating strong temporary buying pressure that can push prices up regardless of the company's immediate business results.