1960 Study Predicted World End on Nov 13 2026 Due to Population Explosion, Prediction Fails

A 1960 study by three scientists warned that the world would end on November 13, 2026, because the human population would explode to near‑infinite size. The paper, led by Heinz von Foerster of the University of Illinois Urbana‑Champaign, appeared in Science and used a hyperbolic formula based on fertility and death rates that showed population doubling faster and faster until it would shoot upward at a single moment. The date matched von Foerster’s birthday, prompting economist Javier Birchenall of UC Santa Barbara to note a touch of humour in the work. The forecast never materialised. Instead, many nations now worry more about population decline than growth. World growth peaked at about 2.3 % in 1963 and has slowed considerably over the past four decades, far below the curve’s prediction. Birchenall, who highlighted the error in a recent Science paper, said the numbers were sensible only up to the 1980s. Demographer Peter McDonald of the University of Melbourne added that fertility cannot be projected accurately beyond ten years and that the post‑war baby boom was missed by earlier experts. The doomsday warning emerged during a period of global overpopulation anxiety, prompting policies such as China’s One‑Child Policy. Today, overpopulation remains a concern in poorer nations with high fertility, notably the Democratic Republic of the Congo, whose population the United Nations expects to double in the next 30 years, potentially outstripping food supplies.

Context

Population forecasts guide resource planning, but long‑term predictions are shaky because social forces—education, economics, cultural shifts—can change fertility rates in ways that models cannot foresee.