Global Energy Crises and Emissions Pressures Put Clean Energy and Security in Focus

Global energy markets disrupted by wars have exposed the strategic weaknesses of economies built on fossil fuels, leaving countries dependent on imports vulnerable to conflicts thousands of kilometres away. Threats to shipping routes quickly raise the costs of transport, electricity, and food, presenting a structural vulnerability for India and the developing world. The Global Carbon Budget released on November 10 projects fossil fuel CO2 emissions to fall by 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, with oil emissions declining by 1.9% partly due to disruptions from the war in Iran. However, coal emissions are expected to rise by 0.6%, and total CO2 emissions including land use change are projected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year. Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and lead author of the report, noted that a decline driven by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution because temporary price spikes do not replace fossil fuels permanently. A companion study in Nature Climate Change estimates solar, wind, and electric vehicles could offset 64% to 79% of additional emissions from rising energy demand through 2028. Delegates at the United Nations climate summit COP31 in Türkiye face choices regarding these transitions, while developing countries confront high borrowing costs, limited technology access, and fewer financial resources.

India's Energy Transition

India imports about 88% of its crude oil and relies on fossil fuels for over 93% of its primary energy supply according to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. Renewable electricity generation exceeded 500 terawatt-hours in 2025, supplying a quarter of the nation's electricity and reducing cumulative spending on coal and natural gas imports by over $100 billion between 2011 and 2025 according to the International Energy Agency. Despite these gains, India faces challenges making renewables displace coal after dark, resulting in 2.1 terawatt-hours of renewable electricity being curtailed in 2025-26 as coal plants maintained minimum operating levels according to Ember. Neshwin Rodrigues, a senior energy analyst at Ember, stated that coal's remaining hold is after dark and requires storage and a flexible grid. India's fossil fuel CO2 emissions are expected to rise 4.4% in 2026 with coal up 5.9% as overall demand expands.

Ethanol Blending and Resource Pressures

India's ethanol blending programme saved over ₹1.44 trillion in foreign exchange and substituted 24.5 million metric tonnes of crude oil by August 2025 according to the Economic Survey 2025-26. However, the programme increased demand for agricultural feedstocks, bringing energy policy into competition with food security, land, and water. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, maize accounted for 20% of ethanol feedstock supplied, while damaged food grains and rice accounted for 11% and 8% respectively, with sugarcane making up the remaining 62% according to PRS Legislative Research. Karthik Ganesan, a fellow at CEEW, noted that costs go beyond input procurement to include public support and water use, while Anasuya Gangopadhyay from the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy warned that current patterns could increase risks over time.

Context

Global energy security relies heavily on stable international trade routes and domestic supply diversification to buffer against external conflicts. Balancing rapid decarbonisation with agricultural demands and grid flexibility remains a central challenge for developing economies navigating the transition away from fossil fuels.