Keralam Prepares for Northeast Monsoon After Deficient Southwest Rains

Keralam is getting ready for the arrival of the northeast monsoon following a southwest monsoon season that saw a 28% deficit in rainfall. Weather officials state that winds have shifted from westerlies to easterlies, and the India Meteorological Department is set to announce the onset within 24 hours as conditions have nearly been met.

Rain Alerts

Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the IMD in Thiruvananthapuram, noted that the southwest monsoon withdrawal criteria should be met by October 15. The IMD has issued an orange alert for Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, and Ernakulam districts for Thursday to warn of intense heavy rainfall. A yellow alert for isolated heavy rain is in place for most other districts, excluding Kannur and Kasaragod, with showers expected to pick up during the afternoons and nights.

Weather Factors

Rainfall over Keralam will be aided by weather systems over north Keralam, neighbouring Karnataka, and the Bay of Bengal. However, an intensifying El Niño over the Pacific may also influence weather patterns by raising temperatures and increasing the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While warmer air can lead to intense rain and stronger cyclones, El Niño can also block the upward movement of warm air and suppress rainfall, possibly leading to short wet spells mixed with long dry periods.

Context

Historical records show that Keralam has experienced normal or above-normal northeast monsoon rainfall in 96 out of the 125 years recorded between 1901 and 2025. The highest rainfall during this season occurred in 2021 with 1,026.3 mm, while the lowest was recorded in 2016 at 185 mm during a strong El Niño year.