Anthropic Prepares For Massive IPO As Financial Pressures Mount

UPDATE - follow-up to Anthropic's valuation can't secure its moat: Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is preparing to go public at a valuation of $1.4 trillion, with a market capitalisation near $1 trillion, aiming to raise up to $64.4 billion by offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each.

Spending and Revenue

The firm revealed roughly $900 billion in spending commitments, almost entirely for computing infrastructure until 2045, with half expected to be incurred by 2030 and $70.7 billion in the twelve months from September 30. An additional $150 billion to $175 billion in potential payments under arrangements without fixed dollar commitments was also disclosed. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue grew from $2.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 to $33.2 billion in the same slice of 2026, though its proposed fully diluted valuation exceeds annualised sales 17-fold.

Market Pressures

Token-based charging formed 79% of total revenue from January to September 2026, pushing users to maximise token use. Engineers must keep building progressively more capable models because models released within the last six months drove over 80% of third-quarter revenue, and the firm has not established that it will sustain profitability after honouring its infrastructure commitments. Crucially, neither Anthropic nor its competitors have a lasting competitive advantage or moat.

Context

AI companies rely heavily on massive computing infrastructure investments to build and run advanced models, but rapidly falling prices for AI inference and growing open-source alternatives make it hard to maintain high profit margins. Large-scale public offerings like this one test whether private tech valuations can hold up against the realities of long-term infrastructure debt and fierce market competition.