Nations Debate Future of 1.5C Target as COP31 Climate Summit Reaches Midway Point

Nations are divided at the COP31 UN climate summit in Turkiye over how to handle the reality that the world is set to miss the 1.5°C warming limit from the Paris accord. The planet has already warmed about 1.4°C above pre-industrial times, and the UN declared in September that crossing the 1.5°C threshold is near and unavoidable.

Summit Divides

Pacific island nations facing rising seas want to keep the goal alive. Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr called the limit an existential threat to food, economies, and sovereignty during his speech in Antalya. Australia, which is chairing the talks, released a summary showing some countries want the final deal to state that 1.5°C is still the right goal. Negotiators are also pushing for language about returning to 1.5°C as soon as possible after crossing it.

Opposing Blocs

Other groups want to drop the target entirely. Observers say the Arab Group and Like-Minded Developing Countries, which include Saudi Arabia and India, are looking for a chance to move away from 1.5°C. A western delegate warned this could cause a rollback in climate action. Greenpeace Antalya delegation head Jasper Inventor noted that some developing nations worry a strong focus on 1.5°C brings pressure to cut emissions without enough financial support. Some countries also pushed to reject grey literature, which is seen as a swipe at a UN Environment Programme study on overshoot scenarios.

Context

The 1.5°C target comes from the Paris agreement, where nearly 200 nations pledged to keep global warming well below 2°C while trying to limit it to 1.5°C. Scientists warn that risks like severe floods, heatwaves, and coral reef loss rise sharply once warming passes 1.5°C. Reversing temperatures back down to 1.5°C by 2100 would require fast emission cuts alongside large-scale carbon removal through trees, wetlands, or new technologies.