Brazil records historic low in Amazon deforestation amid election season

Record Drop

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest dropped to its lowest level on record over the twelve months leading up to July, according to figures released on Friday by the Brazilian space research agency Inpe. Official data from the Prodes satellite monitoring program shows that 3,335 square kilometres, or about 1,287 square miles, of jungle were destroyed during this period. This marks a fall of roughly 42% from the preceding period, bringing the total reduction to 71.2% since 2022. The previous low point in the historical series dating back to 1988 was set in 2011 and 2012 at 4,571 square kilometres, down significantly from a record high of nearly 30,000 square kilometres a year in the mid-1990s.

State Breakdown and Reactions

The worst-affected Brazilian states in 2026 were Pará with 33.9% of all Amazon deforestation, Mato Grosso with 25.5%, and Amazonas with 15.7%, though even those regions saw drops of more than 45% compared to the previous year. Roraima was the only state where the problem grew worse, increasing by 0.4% in a known Bolsonaro stronghold. Outside the Amazon, deforestation in the neighbouring Cerrado savanna fell by about 24% to 5,517 square kilometres, hitting its lowest level since records began in 2001. Marcio Astrini, executive secretary at the climate group Observatorio do Clima, called the figures a historic achievement that proves political will can curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Political Context

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in 2023 promising to end deforestation by 2030, reversing a 59.5% increase seen under former President Jair Bolsonaro. President Lula now faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a presidential election runoff on October 25, after the younger Bolsonaro performed better than expected in the first round. The senator's manifesto pledges to strengthen oversight in the Amazon while focusing law enforcement on organized crime rather than small farmers, though critics note his camp has courted extractivist interests. Meanwhile, Inpe measures forest clearance from August to July to avoid cloud cover that obscures satellite images.

Context

Satellite monitoring programs like Inpe's Prodes rely on consistent yearly cycles to track canopy loss caused by logging, mining, and agricultural clearing. Preserving the Amazon and the Cerrado savanna is widely recognized as a critical global measure for absorbing carbon dioxide and slowing climate change. These biomes face constant commercial pressure from cattle ranching and soy production, making government enforcement policies a major factor in annual clearance rates.