El Nino raises wildfire and water scarcity fears across Keralam's forests

A developing strong El Nino threatens to worsen dry conditions across Keralam's forests, creating severe water shortages and raising the risk of wildfires and human-wildlife conflicts. A 28 percent deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall threatens to make the situation worse if dry spells continue.

Water and Wildlife Stress

Forest streams and waterholes could dry up much earlier than normal, forcing wild animals to move toward forest edges and human settlements in search of water. Higher temperatures and low water levels can also cause behavioural changes and physical stress in wildlife. K.A. Sreejith, a senior principal scientist at the Kerala Forest Research Institute, notes that El Nino alters monsoon winds and reduces soil moisture, which harms plant growth and disrupts seasonal cycles like flowering and fruiting. These changes alter food availability and affect overall forest health, though tree canopies might still look normal while their inner health declines.

Fire Risks and Future Outlook

Authorities may need to start preventative measures early, such as clearing fire lines along forest boundaries. The Forest Survey of India reports that Keralam has recorded 49 large forest fire incidents so far in 2026, compared with 52 in 2025. C.K. Vishnudas, executive director of the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology, states that it is still too early to measure the full ecological impact of the event.

Context

El Nino is a natural climate pattern linked to warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific that often alters rainfall and weather across the world. The northeast monsoon will now play a vital role in determining whether water sources in forests get enough replenishment in the coming weeks.