Russian Military Satellite Moves Closely Toward U.S. Radar Satellite Supplying Ukraine

Russian Cosmos‑2612 satellite has repeatedly altered its orbit to close in on ICEYE‑X36, a U.S.‑registered commercial radar‑imaging satellite that provides data to Ukraine. The two objects, orbiting about 550 km above Earth, were estimated by TU Delft lecturer Marco Langbroek to be only 1‑2 km apart on October 17 and could come within metres if their paths continue unchanged. These maneuvers, known as rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), are normally consensual for inspections or repairs, but ICEYE’s operators have not invited the approach, making this a non‑consensual RPO. Cosmos‑2612 is one of six Russian military satellites launched on 16 April 2026; Moscow has not disclosed its mission, payload or fuel capacity. ICEYE‑X36, launched in March 2024 and weighing roughly 90 kg, carries a synthetic‑aperture radar built by a Finnish firm and can image military deployments. A single ICEYE satellite has supplied Ukraine with radar data since 2022 under a programme funded by the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation, and a January 2026 agreement expanded Kyiv’s access to the wider ICEYE fleet of about 72 satellites. In May, five Russian satellites shifted their inclination from 97° to 97.8°, bringing them within 600 m‑5.2 km of ICEYE‑X36, but they later drifted apart. Cosmos‑2612 resumed a new series of adjustments: a 46 km altitude rise on 30 September, plane alignment, a descent on 12 October that left a 475 km gap by 13 October, and further tweaks on 15‑16 October that reduced the distance dramatically. No attack has been confirmed, and experts cite three possible motives: a show of RPO capability to force the U.S. to move the satellite, electronic jamming, or a physical strike that could create debris. International law offers no set minimum distance; the 1967 Outer Space Treaty requires “due regard” for other states’ activities, while the U.S. retains legal jurisdiction over ICEYE‑X36. NATO says a space attack could trigger collective defence, but the satellite’s military use is not publicly proven.

Context

RPOs are a growing concern as nations test the ability to approach other countries’ assets in orbit, raising legal and security questions. The episode highlights how space tools that support ground conflicts can become targets themselves, potentially expanding the battlefield beyond Earth’s surface.