Options Market Prices Strong Upside for Netflix Ahead of Earnings

Market Expectation

Options traders price a 9% jump in Netflix stock after its earnings release, the biggest post‑earnings implied move since the third quarter of 2022.

Trade Details

The stock is still about 50% below its all‑time peak and has seen CEO changes, layoffs and a failed takeover bid. Over the past eight quarters the median move has been 7.25%. At 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, call buying outpaced put buying by a factor of 1.5, while put selling topped 150% of average daily volume. Six of the ten most‑bought option contracts were calls, five of which expire this Friday. The largest single trade involved selling near‑the‑money Nov 20 70‑strike puts worth roughly $2 million, a bullish signal. In addition, traders bought more than 3,500 80‑strike calls expiring Friday, paying over $210 K in premium; those calls would need the stock to rise about 20% by Friday to break even, more than double the implied 9% move. The activity signals that traders are betting the earnings losing streak could end soon.

Context

Higher implied moves suggest traders expect the recent earnings‑related disappointments to end, and the heavy call activity reflects growing optimism despite the stock’s long‑term decline.