WMO warns this year’s El Nino may hit record strength with Pacific temps soaring 3.8°C

WMO says the current El Nino over the tropical Pacific could be the strongest ever recorded, with sea surface temperatures possibly 3.8 °C above average from November 2026 to January 2027. The organization defines an El Nino when the temperature anomaly reaches just 0.5 °C, so the forecast far exceeds the usual threshold. In a statement, WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo said the event is “literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades” and will peak toward the end of 2026, with impacts lasting well beyond. El Nino is one of three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that shifts sea temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Its opposite phase, La Niña, usually cools the planet, while a neutral phase shows no strong temperature shift. A very strong El Nino can scramble normal temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide. It can cause severe drought in some areas, heavy rain and flooding in others, and raise heat levels across large parts of the globe.

Context

El Nino events influence agriculture, water supplies and disaster risk in many countries. When the Pacific warms unusually, weather systems elsewhere often adjust, leading to the mixed extremes described above.