Brazil Holds Tense Presidential Runoff Election Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilians began voting in a tense presidential runoff election on October 25, 2026, choosing between incumbent left-of-centre President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. The contest will determine the future direction of Latin America's largest economy and most populous country.

First Round Results

In the first round held earlier this month, Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Mr. Lula by more than 2.2 million votes. More than 33 million registered voters did not cast a ballot out of a total electorate of nearly 160 million. Pre-vote polls showed the two candidates in a tight race, requiring more than 50% of the vote to take office in January.

Candidate Positions

Mr. Lula governs as a left-of-centre veteran politician who led the country from 2003 to 2010. His reelection campaign faced challenges over security and the rising cost of living. To win over undecided voters, his government endorsed a debt relief program for small businesses, promised free weekend public transportation, and benefited from the Senate approving a popular six-day working week. Flavio Bolsonaro is an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump and the son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro. His campaign centered on a tough-on-crime platform and a promise to lower food costs. He also vowed to seek an amnesty for his father, who is under house arrest for attempting a coup. Both candidates faced corruption suspicions, with Mr. Bolsonaro under investigation for money laundering and tax evasion after admitting he accepted about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro for a film about his father.

Broader Stakes

A victory for Flavio Bolsonaro would mark a rightward shift for Latin America amid recent conservative wins in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. A win for Mr. Lula would keep Brazil aligned with Mexico under President Claudia Sheinbaum among major regional left-of-centre powers. The election also carries significant foreign policy implications regarding ties with the United States and access to rare mineral deposits estimated at up to 21 million tons.

Context

Brazil operates an electronic voting system that typically delivers election results within hours of polling stations closing at 5 p.m. Brasilia time. The next president will also appoint at least three Supreme Court justices out of 11 during their upcoming term.