Israel Heads to National Vote in First Election Since October 2022 Attack

Israel is holding national elections on Tuesday for all 120 seats in the Knesset. This vote will decide Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future. It is the first election since the October 7 Hamas attack, which was followed by wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. The current government is a coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners.

The Race and Coalitions

Opinion polls show a close fight between Netanyahu's right-wing alliance and a Jewish-led opposition alliance. No single party has ever won the 61 seats needed to form a government alone in the country's 81-year history. Israelis vote for party lists instead of individual candidates, and parties must cross a 3.25 percent vote threshold to enter the Knesset. Netanyahu's Likud party and a new centrist party named Yashar, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, are the two main groups. Polls show varying figures, with Channel 12 projecting Eisenkot ahead with 23 seats and Likud with 21, while Channel 14 projects Likud with 30 and Eisenkot with 20. Winning the most seats does not guarantee victory because the real battle is over forming a coalition, which can take weeks or months. Netanyahu could stay in power with help from allies like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party, and ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Opposition and Alternative Scenarios

Four opposition parties signed a non-aggression pact to work together to unseat Netanyahu, though no prime ministerial candidate is declared yet. Eisenkot faces competition on his right from parties led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, and on his left by the Democrats party led by Yair Golan. Two Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, represent Palestinian citizens who make up 20 percent of the population and are set to win about 13 seats. While opposition leaders dismissed an alliance with them, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas stayed open to an arrangement. If no leader gains a consensus, other outcomes include power-sharing rotation deals, supporting another Knesset member, or facing a new election. If a new election happens, Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister, similar to the period between 2019 and 2022 when the country held five elections.

Context

Coalition politics are common in parliamentary systems where a single party rarely wins an absolute majority of seats. In Israel, smaller parties often hold significant leverage during government formation because larger blocs must rely on their support to reach the required majority threshold. Caretaker governments handle routine administrative duties while political leaders attempt to build stable ruling alliances after an inconclusive vote.