Arab voter turnout reaches decade high in recent Israeli elections

Israel recorded a voter turnout of 77.7% in the October 27 legislative elections, marking the highest rate since 1999. Arab citizens drove a significant part of this surge, with exit polls from Channel 12 estimating Arab voter turnout at nearly 80%. This level is the highest seen in at least a decade.

Turnout Shift

While Arabs make up about 21% of Israel's population, their parties have never held more than 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Past elections typically saw about 40% of eligible Arab adults abstain from voting over the last twenty years. Arik Rudnitzky from the Israel Democracy Institute notes that past low turnout stemmed largely from disappointment with Arab parties, alongside about 10% boycotting for ideological reasons. In this election, however, fear served as the primary motivator. Arab citizens wanted to prevent another term of the Netanyahu government or a right-wing government after facing difficulties over the past four years.

Political Impact

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition used the Arab voter surge to mobilize right-wing voters. Mr. Netanyahu urged supporters on X to vote for Likud, describing the situation as a matter of life and death and a war at home. Arab parties criticized these posts as racist and inciting. Survey data from the Israel Democracy Institute in September showed that Jewish Israelis prioritized foreign affairs, security, and the economy. In contrast, over half of surveyed Arab citizens viewed crime in Arab society as a top factor for their vote. Higher turnout is expected to help Arab parties secure at least 17 seats in the Knesset, granting them better representation in committees. Additionally, exit polls show neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition coalition has a clear majority, meaning Arab parties could play a decisive role in forming the government.

Context

Israel uses a parliamentary system where multiple political parties compete for seats in the Knesset, and parties often form coalitions to reach the majority needed to govern. High voter turnout among minority groups can change the balance of power when election margins are tight.