Monsoon ends 13% below average, marking India's driest season in over a decade

Summary

India's June‑September monsoon finished 13 per cent below the long‑period average, recording the driest season in more than ten years. The country received 87 per cent of normal rainfall – 759.4 mm against the average 868.6 mm. The long‑period average (LPA) is the 50‑year mean from 1971 to 2020.

Forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned in April of a below‑normal season, projecting 90 per cent of the LPA with a 4‑point error margin. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared an El Nino in June and said it could become the strongest on record, with peak intensity expected between October and December. El Nino’s warm Pacific waters typically suppress Indian rainfall, while La Niña usually boosts it. Scientists note that ENSO is the single largest driver of annual climate swings worldwide.

Monthly

June saw a shortfall of more than 35 per cent. July was the only month near normal, recording about 1 per cent above the LPA. August fell 16.3 per cent short and September 7.6 per cent below the average. Overall, the four‑month total was 13 per cent below the LPA, confirming the deficit projected by IMD.

Context

The last season that fell below 90 per cent of the LPA was 2015, also affected by a strong El Nino. In the past decade, only 2017 (95 per cent) and 2018 (91 per cent) dropped below the normal range of 96‑104 per cent.