India witnesses fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001 with 12.6 percent deficit

India's southwest monsoon ended with overall rainfall recorded at 12.6 percent below normal, making it the fourth-lowest seasonal total since 2001 according to the India Meteorological Department. The country received 759.4 millimetres of rain during the June to September period, marked by sharp regional differences and a weak start that saw weekly deficits touch 51.1 percent in mid-July.

Regional Impact

East and northeast India recorded a 25 percent deficit while south peninsular India was 24 percent below normal and northwest India saw a 6 percent shortfall, whereas central India remained close to normal with a 2 percent deficit. Specific states faced heavy shortages, including Arunachal Pradesh at 44 percent, Punjab at 41 percent, Assam and Meghalaya at 39 percent, Marathwada at 39 percent, Bihar at 32 percent, and Kerala at 28 percent. Overall, 17 meteorological subdivisions covering 42 percent of the country recorded deficient rainfall, while 18 subdivisions covering 53 percent experienced normal levels.

Temperature And El Nino

September brought unusually high temperatures alongside the erratic rains, with the national average maximum temperature reaching 32.05 degrees Celsius, the highest for the month since 1901. India Meteorological Department director general M Mohapatra stated that El Nino conditions are strengthening and expected to peak in November before weakening. The weather office predicts below-normal rainfall will continue into October and the October-December period for most parts of the country, accompanied by higher-than-normal maximum and minimum temperatures.

Crop Concerns

Founder of HnbY Deepak Pareek warned that the deficient monsoon and strengthening El Nino leave large tracts of the country with inadequate soil moisture, spelling trouble for winter crop sowing and overall crop prospects. The impact will vary by region, with rainfed areas facing greater moisture stress. District-level data from the weather agency showed that 32 percent of districts were in the deficient category in September, with another 16 percent classified as large-deficient.

Context

Monsoon rainfall in India is vital for agriculture and groundwater recharge, directly influencing the rural economy and food prices. Weather patterns like El Nino frequently disrupt typical rainfall distributions across the subcontinent, posing recurring challenges for millions of farmers dependent on timely seasonal showers.