New Bay of Bengal low‑pressure area may bring rain to Tamil Nadu in early November

A new low‑pressure area formed in the Bay of Bengal on Oct 29, prompting rain expectations for the first week of November across Tamil Nadu. Weather analyst Pradeep John, known as Tamil Nadu WeatherMan, posted on his social media that the system, labelled “Arnab”, is losing strength as it drifts toward the south‑Andhra coast. He said the weakening depression will likely move into the southern part of the Bay and could bring scattered showers to northern Tamil Nadu. Current models show the centre will stay a depression and not intensify into a cyclonic storm; if it does strengthen, the cloud band may shift away, reducing rainfall over the state. The convergence zone associated with the low pressure is expected to stay strongest in the northern region, giving the best chance of rain there. Meanwhile, the Chennai weather centre reported light rain today and tomorrow over parts of the western‑ghats districts and coastal Tamil Nadu, with moderate rain possible on Nov 1 in north‑coastal districts and the Western Ghats. Similar moderate showers are forecast for parts of Madurai, Tiruchirappalli, Namakkal, Salem, Erode and Karur. The same centre warned that daytime temperatures could rise up to 3 °C above normal in some locations. The exact amount of rain will depend on whether the depression deepens as it tracks west‑northwest over the southern Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the next two days.

Context

Low‑pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal often bring early‑season rain to Tamil Nadu, but their impact varies with how quickly they intensify or dissipate.