Brazilian President Lula Leads Pre-Polls Ahead of Sunday Vote

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a slight lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in final opinion polls ahead of the first-round presidential vote on Sunday, October 4, 2026. A runoff election on October 25 appears likely if no candidate secures more than 50 percent of valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots.

Poll Results

Survey numbers from three major polling agencies show a close contest. An MDA poll conducted among 2,007 people between September 30 and October 2 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points puts Lula at 47.8 percent and Bolsonaro at 42.1 percent of valid votes, followed by Augusto Cury at 3.6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado at 3.4 percent, Renan Santos at 1.7 percent, and Romeu Zema at 0.9 percent. A Datafolha poll of 4,006 people surveyed from October 2 to October 3 with a 2 percent margin of error records Lula at 45 percent and Bolsonaro at 42 percent, alongside Caiado at 4 percent, Santos at 3 percent, Cury at 3 percent, and Zema at 1 percent. A Quaest poll of 3,702 people taken from October 2 to October 3 with a 2 percent margin of error places Lula at 46 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent, with Cury, Santos, and Caiado each at 3 percent.

Context

President Lula da Silva runs for re-election as the Workers' Party candidate, facing a strong challenge from the right-wing opposition led by Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Brazil's electoral system requires a candidate to cross the 50 percent threshold of valid votes to avoid a second round of voting between the top two contenders.