Nifty records sharpest weekly fall in months as markets look to RBI policy

Market Decline

The Nifty fell for the fourth day in a row on Thursday, ending every session of the past week in the red. The index dropped 3.11 percent over the week, which is its sharpest weekly fall in 29 weeks. This marks its eighth straight weekly loss, creating its longest losing streak in 25 years. The drop brought the index close to its April 2 low of 22,182.55. It also slipped below the rising trend line from June 2024 and April 2025.

Technical Levels

The Nifty closed below its 200-week moving average of 22,606.97 for the first time since March 2020. The daily RSI dropped to 22.86, placing it deep in oversold territory, while the weekly RSI sits near 31. On Thursday, the index recovered nearly 200 points from its low and formed a long lower shadow. Thursday's high of 22,611 acts as the first resistance point. On the downside, Thursday's low of 22,217 is the immediate support level.

RBI Policy And Cupid Stock

The Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to October 7, with the decision coming on October 7. Markets remain cautious ahead of this announcement. Meanwhile, Cupid stock broke out of a seven-week consolidation base with higher volumes and hit a fresh lifetime high. Sustaining above 314 rupees keeps the stock setup positive, with a target of 338 to 345 rupees and a stop loss at 292 rupees.

Context

Stock indices often experience extended losing streaks and oversold conditions during phases of broader market correction. Central bank policy meetings regularly influence market sentiment and sector movements. Technical indicators like moving averages help analysts track long-term price trends and potential turning points.