New report accuses Northern Territory government of cherry-picking crime data

A new research report accuses the Northern Territory government of cherry-picking data and misleading the public to claim that its law and order policies are reducing crime. Researchers at the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research released their Tough On Crime report this week, stating that the Country Liberal Party government relies on incomplete and unverified figures to support its narrative.

Data Concerns

The report's co-author, Tatiana Corrales, said that data from the NT Police SerPro IT system, introduced in late 2023, cannot be reliably compared with older data and is published with a delay of up to five months. The researchers found no clear trend in crime rates, noting that the government uses an over-reliance on policing data while ignoring multiple independent sources needed for a complete picture.

Conflicting Figures

The report highlights several instances of selective data use, such as a government media release in May that highlighted a 24 per cent drop in house break-ins while omitting a 5.8 per cent rise in overall property offences. Other independent sources, including court statistics, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the North Australian Aboriginal Justice Agency, indicate that victimisation rates, imprisonment rates, court listings, and demand for legal services have all surged since 2024.

Government And Expert Reactions

Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro defended the administration's record last month, stating that two years after key crime reforms were introduced, bail refusals were up by 55 per cent, edged weapon crimes were down by 12 per cent, and 300 offences allegedly committed by 10 to 11-year-olds were before the courts. The NT government stated that crime and court statistics remain publicly available. However, NAAJA chief executive Ben Grimes argued that the government is being intentionally misleading and either does not understand the data systems or is deliberately painting an inaccurate picture.

Context

Governments frequently highlight specific positive statistics to demonstrate the success of new laws, while critics and independent researchers often point to broader metrics like court records and legal aid demand to test those claims. Disagreements over crime trends often stem from whether officials rely solely on police records or include court and justice agency data.