IMD Predicts Extended Rainfall as Bay and Arabian Sea Show Cyclone Potential

Heavy rain will persist across several parts of South India for days, while global weather models indicate potential new storm formation over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Isolated heavy downpours are expected to continue over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, alongside Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, for another four days.

Regional Forecasts

Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and international models suggest weather activity will peak next week. Keralam and Mahe face isolated heavy rain through the weekend, while strong surface winds hit Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam. Scattered rain will also reach Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Telangana over various timelines. Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds will accompany the showers in several southern districts.

Storm Indicators

Weather authorities have not ruled out a depression or cyclone developing in either marine basin. The US Climate Prediction Center assigns a 20 to 40 per cent probability to a strong system forming over the Bay. Google DeepMind places a 53 per cent chance on a storm that could rank among the three strongest North Indian Ocean systems in 2026. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is tracking three potential development areas near the Andaman Islands, the Lakshadweep Sea, and the south-west Arabian Sea. An active pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently positioned over the Bay is providing a boost to atmospheric convection and cyclogenesis.

Northern Weather

At the same time, a fresh western disturbance will bring rain and snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh from November 10. Uttarakhand may experience precipitation on November 8 and 9, while Delhi-NCR expects cooler mornings, partly cloudy skies and occasional showers alongside poor air quality. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh districts are also braced for thunderstorms and rain.

Context

Tropical weather systems in the Indian Ocean are heavily influenced by seasonal oscillations and sea surface temperatures, particularly during the retreating monsoon period. Coastal regions frequently experience extended spells of heavy rainfall when multiple atmospheric disturbances interact across neighboring water bodies. Meteorological agencies monitor these patterns closely using a combination of satellite data and global computer models to issue timely warnings.