Global carbon emissions drop slightly in 2026 due to war shocks

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels dropped 0.4 per cent this year to 42.2 billion tonne, but scientists say the decline stems from oil shocks caused by the war in Iran rather than climate action.

Emissions Breakdown

The drop was largely driven by what happened in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum products that was effectively closed by the war. Oil emissions fell nearly two per cent and natural gas dropped 0.3 per cent, while coal emissions rose 0.6 per cent. Overall fossil fuel emissions fell in major polluting regions like China, the United States, Europe and Japan by about one per cent, but India's fossil fuel pollution increased by 4.4 per cent.

Expert Reactions

Glen Peters, a study co-author from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway, noted that unlike a gradual shift to renewables, oil emissions went up and then suddenly fell because of the conflict. This marks only the third time global carbon pollution has dropped in the 21st century, following the 2009 global recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Outside experts remain divided on the long-term outlook, with some pointing to rapid shifts toward electric vehicles in Asia while others warn that unaffected oil-producing nations are reaping windfall gains.

Context

The Global Carbon Project calculates these yearly figures using data from an international team of more than 140 scientists and presents them at UN climate negotiations. Even with the slight dip in fossil fuel emissions, overall global carbon dioxide emissions still rose one per cent due to land use changes like deforestation and human-caused peat fires.