Bond Traders See 94% Chance of Fed Rate Rise on Wednesday

Bond traders are betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike this Wednesday with a confidence level that history has rarely missed. Interest‑rate swaps tied to the meeting show about a 94% probability that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will lift the benchmark policy rate by a quarter point. The current target range of 3.5%‑3.75% would move up by roughly 23 basis points of tightening. Bloomberg’s data, which tracks expectations back to 2008, indicates that whenever market odds have been this high, the Fed has always delivered a hike. Traders therefore see the Wednesday decision as almost certain, reflecting a decade‑long pattern of accurate market forecasting.