Arabica Coffee Prices Reach One-Month High Amid Low Stocks

Price Rise

Arabica coffee futures on ICE hit a one-month high on Friday, settling up 10.8 cents, or 3.7%, at $3.056 per pound. Prices earlier reached $3.1130. ICE-certified stocks sat at 238,976 bags, which is close to last month's 27-year low of 217,646 bags. Dealers report that market participants worry supplies from top grower Brazil will not reach ICE warehouses before the December contract expiry. Worries about the El Nino weather event hurting Brazil's output next year and the recent strength of Brazil's real currency are also pushing coffee prices higher.

Other Commodities

Robusta coffee settled up $41, or 1.2%, at $3,405 a ton. Vietnam's harvest is starting, with industry participants expecting steady output compared to last year, though El Nino could hurt the 2027/28 crop. London cocoa dropped £134, or 3%, to £4,356 per ton after hitting a 1-1/2-month high on Wednesday. Global cocoa grind data for the third quarter rose 14.3% as demand recovered from the 2025 slump. New York cocoa fell $186, or 3.2%, to $5,645 a ton. Raw sugar dropped 0.28 cents, or 1.3%, to 20.85 cents per lb, driven by excess El Nino-related rains in Brazil that slowed September production and lowered sucrose in the cane. Brazil reported that center-south sugar production fell 6% in the second half of September to 2.86 million tons. Europe suffered a summer drought that damaged its beet crop, while India faced El Nino dryness. White sugar fell $6.20, or 1.1%, to $554.90 a ton.

Context

Commodity prices often react quickly to weather events and changes in crop supply from major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. Weather patterns such as El Nino can alter rainfall and temperatures, directly impacting crop yields and global market inventories.