India to Continue Buying Russian Oil After Trump Waives New Sanctions

India is set to keep importing Russian crude oil at close to current levels after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order waving sanctions and tariffs mandated by a new law.

What Happened

Mr. Trump issued the order on October 16, 2026, just a day before a 30-day enforcement deadline expired. He had signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18. That law authorized tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian crude and gas, along with sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of tankers. The waiver is not specific to India and also benefits China, while leaving room for the administration to reconsider the decision later.

Import Numbers

India remains the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day this year. China follows at 1.2 million barrels per day, with Italy, Turkiye, and the Netherlands making up the rest of the top five. India imported about 1.82 million barrels per day in September, compared to 1.49 million for China. Data provider Kpler expects October imports to hold steady around 1.8 to 1.9 million barrels per day. These volumes are down from mid-year peaks of 2.6 million barrels per day in June and 2.57 million barrels per day in July.

Background

Russian crude became a major bargain for Indian refiners after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led Western buyers to shun its oil. The European Union banned seaborne imports, and the G7 imposed a price cap. Russia redirected its oil to Asia at steep discounts. Russian oil made up only 2% or less of India's imports before the war, but quickly grew until Russia became India's top crude supplier, at times accounting for 40 to 50% of the total imports. In September 2026, the price discount on Urals-grade crude relative to Brent averaged $23 per barrel. Refiners also used Russian oil to replace volumes lost when the Iran war disrupted supplies earlier this year. A Treasury decision on October 9 also allowed the sale and import of Russian diesel into the global market until April 7, 2027, making enforcement of the new law unlikely.

Context

Sanctions waivers of this kind are often used by governments to prevent sudden shocks to global energy supplies and prices. When major producers face heavy restrictions, exemptions help keep fuel flowing to large consumer markets like India and China without causing severe spikes at the pump.