IEA chief says oil market unlikely to normalise in 2027 amid West Asia conflict

IEA chief Fatih Birol said on Oct 20 there is little chance oil market will return to normal in 2027 as war in West Asia keeps prices high. The war, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, lifted crude oil above $100 a barrel, up from under $70 before fighting began. Damage to Gulf refineries also sent diesel to record levels. In reaction, the IEA has arranged for member nations to release up to 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, about 20% of the stockpile; Birol noted more releases could be considered if needed. Iran has promised to control tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a step that pushed transport‑insurance costs higher even though recent reports say shipping volumes have returned to pre‑war levels. Birol warned that any overlapping crisis in West Asia could force governments to explore other options, and he criticized that the conflict is pushing climate‑change mitigation down the global agenda despite worsening extreme‑weather events. ## Context Oil markets react sharply to geopolitical tension, so large releases from strategic reserves are used to calm prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea lane that carries a big share of world oil, making any disruption especially impactful.