UN Report Outlines Emissions Targets to Reverse Global Temperature Rise by 2100

Global temperature rise is on course to pass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but sharp cuts to greenhouse gases can bring temperatures back down to that safe limit by the end of the century, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme report.

Emission Targets

Titled 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return' and released on Wednesday, the report models a scenario where peak warming by the middle of the century hits 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius before returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100 with about a 50 percent chance. To achieve this path, global greenhouse gas emissions must drop by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035, and 69 percent by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.

Policy Gaps

Without major changes, current policies could push global warming to 2.8 degrees Celsius within the century. If countries fully deliver their current Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, warming will be capped at 2.6 degrees Celsius. New NDCs submitted since the previous report have made a negligible difference to these projections, and even under the most optimistic scenario combining all NDCs with net-zero targets, warming would only fall to 2.1 degrees Celsius.

Reactions

UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen told reporters in London that no nation is shielded from climate change, with impacts hitting every country, including the United States. She stressed that every extra fraction of a degree increases risks and that nations must pull out all the stops to keep peak warming low. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres added in a statement that overshoot is not surrender and that temperatures can still be brought back down.

Context

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new climate action plans every five years, with each plan supposed to be stronger than the last. These plans outline the specific steps each government will take to fight rising global temperatures.