Heat wave linked to Super El Niño could add nearly 16,000 deaths in India

India could see an estimated 15,800 additional heat‑related deaths, give or take 1,600, between September 2026 and February 2027 as the current 'Super El Niño' pushes temperatures well above normal. The Climate Impact Lab report also warns of 451,000 extra heat deaths worldwide in the first six months of the event, with 239,000 of those expected in the September‑February window. Indonesia faces about 19,300 added deaths, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together about 19,400, Brazil about 13,300 and the Sahel region of Africa roughly 66,800. Michael Greenstone, co‑founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor at the University of Chicago, said the study shows where emergency actions can now save tens of thousands of lives. The report labels the phenomenon a 'Super El Niño', an informal tag for exceptionally strong El Niño episodes. Forecasts earlier this month gave a more than 90 % chance of a very strong El Niño this autumn and winter, with sea‑surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific more than 3 °C above normal. Early impacts are already visible: Indonesia’s peatland forests are burning, parts of Central America are coping with drought‑hit farms, and India’s southwest monsoon is retreating after a season of deficient rain. National rainfall is about 15 % below normal up to 22 September, with larger shortfalls in the south and east. Heat is straining power supplies; nearly 40 % of India’s coal‑fired plants report critically low fuel stocks as demand spikes. The mortality estimate stems from applying temperature‑mortality links across 24,378 regions to seasonal forecasts, but the exact mathematical relationships will be detailed in a forthcoming peer‑reviewed paper. Earlier research links extreme heat to higher all‑cause deaths, and a 2024 multi‑city Indian study found heatwaves raised mortality across ten cities. A coalition of 188 Indian scientists and ecologists has called for expanded monitoring of the El Niño’s effects on the country’s ecosystems.