Signals point to upcoming U.S. military escalation against Iran after midterms

The United States is preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections, according to foreign policy experts. Washington and Tehran have not attacked land-based targets since early September, but forces from both sides have focused instead on commercial shipping strikes. The U.S. is trying to block Iranian ports, while Iran attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Potential Triggers

Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, expects new strikes shortly after the midterms. She pointed to the movement of extra U.S. military troops and assets to West Asia, safety warnings given to Americans in the region, and high alert statuses for Israeli forces. President Donald Trump stated publicly that he would not strike before the midterms to avoid hurting his party at the polls. Mr. Trump also warned on October 23, 2026, that the U.S. might launch another operation similar to Operation Epic Fury if Iran fails to reach a deal. Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the institute, noted the planned deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt to West Asia, which could raise the number of carrier strike groups there to three. The military is also sending another Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region. Israeli warplanes recently flew a show of force mimicking past strikes, and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Mr. Campbell added that prior damage to U.S. bases leaves no safe place to stage thousands of forces for a ground operation.

Conflict Outlook

Ms. Maloney noted that because most conventional military sites in Iran are already heavily degraded, new attacks will likely target civilian infrastructure and the Iranian population. However, experts agree that military action will not resolve the conflict. Mr. Campbell stated that renewed strikes will not change the strategic approach of the Iranian regime, which has shown a willingness to absorb heavy physical pain.

Context

U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran remain deeply unpopular at home because they have driven up fuel prices and created economic burdens. While naval blockades put heavy pressure on Iran, they also tie down large numbers of American naval assets. Experts point out that neither side can achieve a lasting military solution through further escalation.