United States prepares for potential new military strikes against Iran following midterms

UPDATE - follow-up to Signs point to renewed major U.S. military operations against Iran: The United States is preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran, ending a period where both nations avoided major attacks on land-based targets since early September.

Potential New Strikes

Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, expects strikes shortly after the November 3 U.S. midterms. She pointed to the movement of extra troops and military assets to West Asia, safety warnings for Americans in the region, and high alert status for Israeli forces. President Donald Trump stated publicly that he would not strike before the midterms because it could hurt his Republican Party at the polls, especially as the unpopular war has driven up fuel prices. Mr. Trump also mentioned on Friday, October 23, 2026, that the U.S. might do another operation called Epic Fury if Tehran does not make a deal.

Military Moves

Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Institute, also sees signs that renewed strikes may happen or that the U.S. expects attacks from Iran or Houthi allies in Yemen. Key signs include the planned deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt to West Asia, which could raise the number of carrier strike groups there to three, plus an extra Marine Expeditionary Unit. Israeli warplanes recently carried out a show of force mimicking past strikes, and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. However, ground operations face limits because damage to regional bases leaves no safe place to stage thousands of forces. Furthermore, experts note that military action is unlikely to solve the conflict, and new strikes may target civilian infrastructure because most conventional military sites in Iran are already heavily degraded.

Context

Conflicts between the U.S. and Iran have frequently centered around maritime blockades in the Persian Gulf and strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz. Major military escalations often carry heavy economic costs, including rising global fuel prices that impact voters in domestic elections.