Nuvama picks Eicher, Hyundai and Tata Motors for Diwali auto surge

Market Picks

Nuvama Institutional Equities has flagged Eicher Motors, Hyundai and Tata Motors' passenger‑vehicle businesses as its leading auto recommendations ahead of the Diwali 2026 buying period, citing fresh model launches and healthy waiting lists.

Festive Registrations

Since Navratri, commercial‑vehicle registrations rose 21% year‑on‑year, two‑wheelers climbed 13%, but passenger‑vehicle registrations fell 9% YoY. The festive‑season rise lags the more than 20% growth seen across all categories in the first half of FY27.

Dealer Insights

Dealers in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand report softer demand, pointing to a high base after last year’s GST cuts, patchy rural sales and longer waiting periods for cars. A Honda dealer in Madhya Pradesh expects only 3‑5% growth Sept‑Nov 2026 versus 10% in H1 FY27, blaming weak rural demand from poor rainfall and low crop returns. A Bihar Honda dealer sees 15‑18% festive growth, down from 24% earlier in the year. Hero MotoCorp’s Jharkhand dealer forecasts 10% growth, slightly below the 12% in the first half, with rural demand steady thanks to normal rains. In the passenger‑car segment, a Maruti Suzuki dealer in Bihar predicts 18% festive growth versus 8% earlier, but notes a one‑month wait for the Brezza and Fronx and limited stock of about 20 days. A Hyundai dealer in Madhya Pradesh expects muted festive sales, though the newly launched Bayon, with a one‑month wait, could help. Electric‑vehicle demand stays strong, with an Ather Energy dealer reporting 30‑day waits for the Rizta and 15‑day waits for the Konarc, while growth may stay moderate until supply improves in Q4 FY27.

Context

These mixed signals show that while new models and waiting lists keep some brands attractive, overall festive demand is cooling, especially for passenger cars, as rural buying power weakens and inventory constraints tighten.