Climate Impact Lab Warns Super El Nino Could Cause Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths in Poor Countries

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns that a coming super El Nino could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths in poor countries across the world. The report estimates that at least 4.5 lakh people could die from extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027. Thousands of additional deaths are also expected in India. These numbers are in addition to normal predicted deaths on an average day, using the years 1996 to 2025 as a baseline. The report focuses heavily on poor nations around the world. In the Sahel region of Africa, 66,800 extra deaths may happen due to high temperatures. This includes 31,400 deaths in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger, and 8,000 in Chad. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia could see a combined 19,400 extra deaths, while Indonesia alone might lose 19,300 people. Due to rising temperatures, India could record 15,800 deaths and Brazil 13,300 deaths. The report adds that deaths could also rise steadily in India and Pakistan during the upcoming summer. The Climate Impact Lab stated that its findings can help governments prepare for these conditions in advance. The estimates can guide authorities in issuing early heat warnings, running cooling centers, improving drinking water facilities, protecting outdoor workers, and preparing the healthcare system. El Nino has not fully formed yet. On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization stated that El Nino will grow stronger in the future. The organization expects its intensity to peak in November and December, and to continue into February 2027. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius, noting that El Nino will be very strong in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, this August became the hottest August since record-keeping began in 1901.