Macquarie rates NSE Outperform with price target of ₹1,965 after stock market debut

The National Stock Exchange of India has received an Outperform rating from Macquarie with a target price of ₹1,965 per share following its recent stock market listing. The brokerage calls the exchange "The Dominator" due to its leading market share, integrated technology stack, deep liquidity, and broad range of services. At the target price, the stock has an upside of about 10 percent from its last close of ₹1,792. NSE shares saw profit booking on Friday, falling 1.4 percent to ₹1,792 on the BSE after gaining nearly two percent in the previous session. The stock made its market debut on Thursday at ₹1,800 per share, which was a 0.84 percent premium over its issue price of ₹1,785. Macquarie notes that NSE holds dominant positions across several key segments, including a 93 percent share of the cash market and nearly 100 percent of equity futures in FY26. Its equity-options premium turnover share stood at 74.7 percent, alongside a 100 percent market share in currency options and interest-rate futures. However, the brokerage expects some market-share pressure in cash equities and options over the coming years due to rising competition from the BSE and new trading mechanisms. Despite this, Macquarie projects a 12 percent revenue compound annual growth rate for NSE between FY26 and FY30, supported by high profit margins and strong cash generation. The brokerage anticipates that non-transaction revenues, which currently make up 21 percent of the total and are driven by data and analytics, will grow at a 13 percent annual rate through FY30. Macquarie also expects NSE's return on equity to stay around 35 percent through FY30, while forecasting net profit to climb from ₹103 billion in FY26 to ₹149.7 billion in FY29.