Jefferies sets Vodafone Idea base target at Rs 16, sees potential 143 percent surge in bull case

Vodafone Idea shares could rally up to 143 percent under an optimistic scenario outlined by global investment banking firm Jefferies, though the brokerage also warns of downside risks that could push the telecom stock down to Rs 9. In a note dated October 27, Jefferies revised its base-case price target for the company to Rs 16 from Rs 20. This new base target indicates an upside potential of almost 35 percent from current levels.

Scenario Details

The bull-case target of Rs 29 assumes cumulative tariff hikes of 25 percent over financial years 2027 to 2029 and values the firm at 22 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA. The bear case assumes zero tariff hikes during the same period with a valuation multiple of 18 times, leading to a target price of Rs 9 and a downside of 24 percent. Jefferies expects revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11 percent between financial years 2026 and 2029, while cash EBITDA is projected to expand at a CAGR of 25 percent. Network expansion will play a central role in the recovery, with the brokerage estimating that sites will increase 26 percent to 2,61,000, helping the firm add 6 million subscribers between financial years 2027 and 2029.

Market Standing

Despite a recent correction where the stock declined nearly 23 percent from recent highs, Jefferies notes that the risk-reward profile has grown more attractive because the stock trades below its five-year average multiple at 21 times enterprise value to cash EBITDA. Shares recently fell 2 percent to an intraday low of Rs 11.82, losing 12 percent over the past month and 8.5 percent over three months. Longer-term performance remains positive, with shares gaining 19 percent over six months and rising 25 percent over the past year, hitting a 52-week high of Rs 15.78 in September 2026 and a 52-week low of Rs 8.14 in April 2026.

Context

Brokerage firms regularly issue stock price targets and scenario analyses to help investors understand how different market conditions and company actions could affect a company's financial valuation over time. Telecom companies rely heavily on network coverage quality and regular tariff adjustments to maintain steady cash flow and fund ongoing infrastructure upgrades. Such financial projections depend heavily on external economic factors and actual consumer adoption rates.