Israel's Tight Election Leaves Benjamin Netanyahu Without Majority After Three-Bloc Split

Israel's election leaves the country divided into three blocs after an October 27 vote that gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious coalition 53 seats, which is eight short of the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. His Likud party won 26 seats, down from 32 four years ago. His far-right partners, Otzma Yehudit led by Ithamar Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich, hold 13 seats together. The remaining seats in his bloc come from religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, each holding seven seats.

Opposition and Arab Parties

The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats, which is 13 short of a majority. His Yesh Atid party finished second with 21 seats, while his allies B'Yachad led by Naftali Bennett and Israel Beytenu led by Avigdor Lieberman added 19 seats. The main surprise of the election is the surge of Arab parties into a third bloc with 19 seats, where the Joint List won 12 seats and the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, won seven seats. Likud's slide is smaller than the opposition expected, and the party outperformed pre-election polls.

Government Formation

President Isaac Herzog is expected to invite Mr. Netanyahu to form a government as the leader of the largest party and bloc, giving him 24 days to prove a majority. Mr. Netanyahu has two potential paths forward, which include proposing a unity government with Mr. Eisenkot or winning support from one of Mr. Eisenkot's right-wing allies like Mr. Lieberman or Mr. Bennett to form a Zionist coalition. If Mr. Netanyahu fails, the mandate passes to Mr. Eisenkot, whose 48 seats cannot reach 61 without help from Arab parties. However, Mr. Bennett and Mr. Lieberman strongly oppose any alliance with Arab parties, creating a major dilemma for the opposition.

Context

Israel uses a parliamentary system of proportional representation where a party or coalition must secure a majority of 61 seats in the 125-seat Knesset to govern. Because the country's electorate is deeply divided among multiple political factions, elections frequently result in fragmented parliaments that require complex coalition negotiations to form a government.