Sugar Prices Rise on Brazil Rains While Arabica Coffee Hits One-Month Low

Raw sugar prices increased on Thursday as weather problems in top grower Brazil worsened global supply outlooks. Raw sugar settled up 0.13 cent, or 0.7 percent, at 19.47 cents per lb. This recovery follows a recent drop driven by the Brazilian currency. Meanwhile, sugar production in Brazil's key center-south region dropped 27.1 percent in the first half of October compared to last year, reaching 1.87 million metric tons according to the Agriculture Ministry. Sugar fields in the country are dealing with too much rain linked to the El Nino weather pattern, with more rain forecast. Global sugar prices have also stayed supported since July because of falling supply forecasts, including heat and dry weather hurting Europe's beet crop and a weak monsoon lowering India's cane crop, broker AMDIS noted. White sugar rose 0.4 percent to $527.60 a metric ton.

Coffee and Cocoa Markets

Arabica coffee fell to a one-month low. ICE arabica coffee futures settled down 1.3 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $2.8545 per lb, after touching $2.8080. Coffee prices dropped because the steady drop in exchange-certified stocks might be slowing down, with data showing over 42,000 bags arriving at exchange warehouses to be graded. A weak Brazilian real also pushed mills, farmers, and exporters in Brazil to sell dollar-priced coffee futures since it increases their local currency returns. Robusta coffee dropped 0.7 percent to $3,176 a ton, hitting its lowest level since March 2024. Robusta faces pressure from rising exchange stocks and a starting harvest in top grower Vietnam. In cocoa markets, London cocoa fell 15 pounds, or 0.4 percent, to 4,255 pounds per ton. Expana analysts cut their 2026 and 2027 output forecast for top grower Ivory Coast by 40,000 tons down to 1.83 million tons due to moisture stress hurting tree health and pods. New York cocoa stayed mostly unchanged at $5,456 a ton.

Context

Agricultural commodity prices often swing based on weather events and crop conditions in major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. Weather patterns such as El Nino can cause heavy rains or dry spells that directly damage harvests and lower global supplies. Currency exchange rates also play a major role in international trade by changing how much local money farmers receive when they sell crops priced in US dollars.