Past Market Data Points to November Gains Despite Current Weakness

Indian equities are entering November following a long period of weakness caused by constant foreign investor outflows, high crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and global uncertainty. Market data from 2001 to 2025 indicates that November and December are historically the strongest months for the Nifty 50, providing average returns of 2.5 percent and 2.6 percent. The index finished November in the positive in 15 out of the past 25 years and December in 17 out of 25 years, based on NSE data reviewed by SAMCO Research.

Expert Insights

Diwali falls on 8 November this year, which could bring festive demand, better consumption, and year-end portfolio adjustments to help the market. Jahol Prajapati, an Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, stated that November and December might give a seasonal push to Indian equities after months of weakness. He pointed out that the Nifty ends November and December in positive territory in 60 percent and 68 percent of instances, respectively. However, Prajapati warned that the market still deals with foreign portfolio investor outflows, high crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and global uncertainty. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that historical trends point to a broadly positive November outlook, though performance varies across segments. Over twenty years, the Nifty 50 closed November higher in 10 instances with an average gain of 4.94 percent, and fell in 10 instances with an average loss of 3.22 percent. Bank Nifty ended higher in 14 of the past 20 Novembers with a 6.45 percent average return. The Nifty Midcap index posted gains in 15 of the past 20 Novembers averaging 4.57 percent, while the Nifty Smallcap index gained in 14 of the past 20 Novembers averaging 4.68 percent.

Context

Stock markets often experience seasonal patterns where certain months see predictable buying trends due to festivals, financial year endings, or holiday spending. Analysts track these historical records to understand how past performance might hint at future market movements, though past results do not guarantee future returns.