Most Diwali stock picks lost value over the past year, analysis reveals

Nearly two-thirds of the stocks recommended by brokerages for Diwali 2025 lost value over the following year, though more than half still managed to beat a falling Sensex. A Mint analysis of 148 stocks recommended by 40 brokerages showed that 63% declined between last Diwali and late October 2026, while 53.4% outperformed the Sensex, which dropped 11.7% over the same period. Almost a third of the picks shed more than a quarter of their value.

Performance Details

Steep declines were nearly twice as common as similarly large gains among the 2025 picks. As many as 45 stocks lost more than 25%, compared to just 23 stocks that gained more than 25%. Severe losses hit companies like RMC Switchgears and Oswal Pumps, which dropped 74.5% and 73.3% respectively. On the winning side, Fredun Pharmaceuticals surged 150%, Acutaas Chemicals gained 123.9%, and Syrma SGS Technology rose 107.7%. Sector-wise, consumer durables recorded a median loss of 32%, while power led the winning sectors with a median gain of 10%.

Analyst Views

Experts advise investors to look beyond festive traditions when picking stocks. Sandip Jha, chief product officer at Godrej Wealth, stated that recommendations should be assessed on absolute returns, benchmark performance, and taken risks. Lokesh Manik, senior analyst at Vallum Capital, added that a Diwali date is a ritual and not an investment reason. Rishabh Nahar, partner and fund manager at Qode Advisors, warned that popular stocks often already reflect underlying optimism in their prices, noting that a stock recommendation is not a Diwali gift hamper.

Context

Brokerage firms traditionally release curated lists of stock recommendations ahead of the Hindu festival of Diwali, encouraging retail participation in the equity markets. While these festive picks are marketed as long-term wealth creators, market analysts regularly track their actual performance over a one-year horizon to measure how well the predictions held up against real economic conditions and benchmark indices.