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Super El Nino May Cause 4.5 Lakh Deaths Globally Due to Severe Heat
Reported by Kavya Rao (Senior Writer) · Mathrubhumi ·
Confirmed by a second source: Madhyamam
What Happened
A new climate study warns that a strong El Nino effect and severe heat waves could cause 4.5 lakh extra deaths around the world between September and February 2027. The Climate Impact Lab released this warning, comparing the numbers with average temperatures from 1996 to 2025.
Impact Regions
Most of these predicted deaths will happen in developing and poor countries in the Global South. The African Sahel region alone may see 67,000 extra deaths, mostly in Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia could face around 20,000 deaths. In India, extreme heat may cause 15,800 extra deaths.
Future Timeline
The World Meteorological Organization says El Nino is growing stronger right now. It is expected to peak between November and December 2026 and stay strong until February 2027. After February 2027, countries like India and Pakistan will enter the summer season, and heat wave signs and death rates could go up even more.
ExplainerWhy this matters
What Happened
A recent climate study by the Climate Impact Lab warns that a strengthening El Nino and severe heat waves could lead to 4.5 lakh extra deaths globally from September through February 2027.
Why It Matters
This report highlights how global climate shifts do not affect all regions equally. The heaviest toll is expected in developing and poorer nations of the Global South, including parts of Africa and Asia, due to extreme temperatures and a lack of resources to handle prolonged heat waves.
What Happens Next
The World Meteorological Organization notes that El Nino will peak in late 2026 and persist into early 2027, after which nations like India and Pakistan will enter summer, raising concerns that heat-related dangers and death rates will continue to climb.
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