Hurricane Polo Hits Category 5 Off Mexico as Scientists Track Strong El Niño

Hurricane Polo has grown into a powerful Category 5 storm off the southwestern Pacific coast of Mexico. The US National Hurricane Center reported that the storm was nearly stationary roughly 325 kilometres south of Zihuatanejo, carrying maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometres per hour and a minimum central pressure of 905 millibars. Officials expect the storm to turn sharply northwest before moving west-northwest over the coming days.

Threat to Mexico

While the core of the storm is expected to stay offshore, its slow movement keeps Mexico's Pacific coast under severe threat. The National Hurricane Center warned of tropical-storm conditions along with four to eight inches of rain, and isolated totals reaching up to 12 inches, across parts of Guerrero and Michoacán. Such heavy rainfall could trigger dangerous flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions. Mexican authorities temporarily suspended classes in some coastal areas and closed ports in Guerrero and Michoacán as safety measures.

The El Niño Factor

Scientists are closely examining the role of El Niño, a climate pattern marked by unusually warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization noted that sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific were already exceptionally high, with the Niño 3.4 index reaching weekly values between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average from late July to mid-August. Researchers point out that El Niño provided favourable conditions for Polo's rapid strengthening, though experts caution that tropical cyclones depend on multiple factors and El Niño should not be viewed as the sole cause.

Global and Local Impacts

A new study from the Climate Impact Lab estimates that the current El Niño could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027. For India, the study projects about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027. Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department reported that the southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from parts of northwestern India, with 43% of the country's geographical area remaining rain-deficient as of September 19 and cumulative rainfall sitting about 15% below normal.