Bay of Bengal system to strengthen into cyclone by Monday morning, warns weather office

UPDATE - follow-up to Cyclonic storm likely by October 26; heavy rain in Coastal Andhra from October 27: IMD: A fresh low-pressure zone took shape over the Bay of Bengal on Friday morning and is on track to turn into a cyclonic storm by October 26.

System Path

The India Meteorological Department reported that the disturbance gathered strength from an upper-air circulation. It sits above the east-central and adjacent south-east sections of the water body. Forecasters expect it to grow into a depression by Saturday and a deep depression by Sunday. The system will then track west-northwest towards the shores of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha. Officials note that weather models disagree on its peak power, with some European data pointing to a very severe storm while artificial intelligence models suggest a regular cyclone.

Local Impact

State disaster management head Prakhar Jain urged farmers and residents to take early safety steps while calling on fishermen to abandon deep waters immediately. Rain has already hit parts of the region, leaving streets waterlogged in Nellore and Prakasam districts. Thottambedu in Tirupati district received 40.2 millimetres of rain in the twenty-four hours leading up to Thursday morning, while Rapur recorded 40 millimetres. Weather stations also tracked gusty winds and thunderstorms expected across Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema on Saturday.

Context

Post-monsoon storms in the Bay of Bengal frequently gather strength during this time of the year due to warm sea temperatures and shifting wind patterns. Coastal regions in eastern India routinely face heavy downpours, strong winds, and potential storm surges when these systems make landfall. Meteorological agencies track these developments days in advance to issue warnings and coordinate disaster relief efforts.