Israel Heads to Polls in First National Vote Since 2023 Conflict

Israelis will cast their ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars across Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Polling indicates that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a tight race against Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces. Neither side is projected to win a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, meaning the final outcome could remain unclear for weeks or months.

Election Rules and Government Formation

The Knesset has 120 seats, requiring any governing coalition to secure at least 61 seats. Israel relies on a system of proportional representation where parties win seats based on their exact share of the vote, making coalitions a permanent feature of Israeli politics. If no bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold, parties must negotiate, which can lead to a minority government or fresh elections where Netanyahu would serve as interim prime minister.

Key Contenders and Alliances

Gadi Eisenkot founded his Yashar Party last year, campaigning on his military record and political newcomer status. His son was killed during the early months of the Gaza war, and Eisenkot resigned from Netanyahu's war cabinet in 2024 over handling of the conflict, pushing for accountability regarding the failures of October 7. Other prominent opposition figures include right-wing figures Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, alongside left-leaning former general Yair Golan. Meanwhile, Netanyahu leads the most right-wing government in Israel's history and relies on far-right partners who advocate for annexing the West Bank and the migration of Palestinians from Gaza. About one-fifth of Israel's population consists of Arab citizens, whose two running party blocs could hold the balance of power even though most leading Jewish parties refuse to work with them.

Impact on the Conflict and Palestinians

Security has dominated the election campaign, with challengers criticizing Netanyahu for the security lapses that resulted in nearly 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages taken on October 7. Netanyahu presents himself as a security leader, citing military gains. The election outcome also shapes Palestinian daily life, as Israel continues near-daily strikes and controls over half of Gaza a year after a ceasefire. The Hamas-run health ministry reports over 74,000 deaths in Gaza since October 7, 2023, a figure considered reliable by the UN, while UN records show record-high settler attacks and expanding settlements in the West Bank. Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas rule within 18 months through force or a US-led plan, supports general settlements while opposing the E1 project, and speaks of autonomy or state-minus for Palestinians.

Context

Proportional representation electoral systems often empower smaller fringe parties because larger parties rely on them to form a governing majority. This dynamic frequently gives minority factions significant leverage over national policy, particularly on sensitive issues like territorial settlements and military strategy. Israel previously held five national elections between 2019 and 2022 due to repeated legislative deadlocks and coalition collapses.